Beating the Oklahoma City Thunder and beating the New York Knicks will require two very different things from the San Antonio Spurs. That was the central message of an early NBA Finals breakdown from Hoops Tonight, which argued that the matchup awaiting Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs is fundamentally unlike the one they just survived.
The analysis began with the edge that powered San Antonio past OKC: sheer size and physicality in the backcourt. Spurs guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper simply overwhelmed Oklahoma City's smaller defenders, enjoying size and athleticism advantages all over the floor. Against New York, the show suggested, that advantage largely disappears.
The reason is the Knicks' perimeter personnel. OG Anunoby stands 6-foot-8 and Mikal Bridges 6-foot-7 with long arms, giving New York wing defenders who are bigger, stronger and longer than anything San Antonio saw against the Thunder. Rather than getting bullied, the Knicks can concede a little space and bank on strong contests when Spurs guards try to rise into pull-up jumpers.
That sets up the breakdown's central tactical prediction: that Mike Brown will hand Karl-Anthony Towns the same assignment Isaiah Hartenstein executed against Wembanyama earlier in the postseason. The idea is to let Towns play the ground game — "beat him to spots and keep him kind of pinned in front of him" — and defend Wembanyama much the way Hartenstein and Jalen Williams did. Doing so would free Anunoby and Bridges to take on San Antonio's bigger, more athletic guards, where the Spurs would no longer hold a clear physical edge. Castle, the show noted, looked like "a truck out there against OKC," but he is smaller than Anunoby, who is quick enough to handle what he does off the dribble.
On the other end, the Spurs are expected to guard Brunson in much the way they smothered Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The complication, according to Hoops Tonight, is that the Knicks offer substantially more reliable ball-handling and shooting around their star than OKC could put on the floor. New York can deploy five-man groups — Brunson, Landry Shamet, Bridges, Anunoby and Towns — that are big, strong and capable of shooting from everywhere. As the show framed the Knicks' implicit challenge to San Antonio: "We're pretty much as big and strong as you, if not even a little bit stronger at a couple of position groups, and all of us can shoot. So good luck guarding us the way that you guarded Shai."
The takeaway was a genuine coin flip. Hoops Tonight said its initial gut read on the series was 50/50 between San Antonio and New York — a notable shift, given the show would have made OKC a substantial favorite over the Knicks. A pick was being held until early in the following week, but the expectation was clear: "I expect a close, competitive series. A win for basketball fans, too."
The breakdown also cautioned against reading too much into regular-season results. The Knicks dominated their season meetings with San Antonio, just as the Spurs dominated OKC during the regular season before the Western Conference Finals went the distance. "The regular season only means so much," the show stressed, recalling how close San Antonio came to elimination against the Thunder despite a 4-1 regular-season edge.
There was even a nod to NBA Cup symmetry. With the Knicks and Spurs having met in this season's in-season tournament final, the league now gets the two NBA Finalists reprising that matchup on the biggest stage — a development the show called the best possible advertisement for the young NBA Cup's growing relevance.
For the Knicks, the conclusion was simple: this was the desired outcome. For everyone watching, the verdict was even simpler — Spurs-Knicks is shaping up to be a phenomenal Finals.
